I have been following the USA Today’s Medal Tracker since May last year.
The Tracker was updated most recently on 20 March.
Recently there have been two additions to the discussion of Olympic Medal predictions and projections.
This month Daniel Johnson has published his medal predictions. Daniel has published predictions for the Olympics since the 2000 Summer Games in Sydney. This year he has recalibrated his model and has used 60 years of historical data.
Daniel’s model uses non-athletic performance data to make forecasts: per capita income, population and the advantage of hosting the Games (or of living nearby). This year’s model includes “a host nation advantage that pre-dates and post-dates the Games actually hosted, and a “cultural specific factor” that helps to correct the model’s historical under-predictions for nations like Australia and China.”
A press release of Daniel’s predictions for 2012 can be found here.
For other blog posts about medal predictions and projections for London, please use this link.